In September 2025, Russia’s oil export revenues decreased by around $0.2 billion to $13.4 billion MoM, according to the October edition of the Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute.
Revenues from crude exports rose by $0.2 billion to $9.0 billion, but this increase was fully offset by a $0.4 billion decline in oil product revenues to $4.4 billion.
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Overall, seaborne oil exports increased by 4.1% MoM, remaining broadly unchanged compared to the same period last year. Tankers with International Group (IG) P&I insurance carried 26% of crude and 81% of oil products.
In October 2025, Russian refinery runs dropped by about 800 kb/d over normal level to 4.6 mb/d due to continued drone attacks.
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Rosneft, Russia’s largest producer, reduced processing by 22% from July levels. Several major refineries — including Novo-Ufimsky (complete shutdown), Ryazan (-80%), Volgograd (-58%), and Saratov (-34%) — significantly cut throughput.
The Kirishi refinery, one of Russia’s key diesel exporters, lowered output by 16% to 185 kb/d. The absence of official confirmation of damages complicates the assessment of their scale and recovery timelines.
Despite reduced refinery activity in Russia, the impact on market prices in Europe was limited as global oil supply remained intact. Oil product exports fell by 170 kb/d — mainly diesel/gasoil and fuel oil — to the lowest level in a decade (excluding April 2020), while crude oil exports rose by 370 kb/d to the highest level since May 2023.
Average diesel and fuel oil prices in Northwest Europe declined by $4.2/bbl and $6.2/bbl, respectively, compared to July levels.
According to KSE Institute estimates, 153 tankers of the Russian shadow fleet carrying crude and oil products departed from Russian ports and engaged in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in September; 89% of them were older than 15 years.
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India remained the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude with 1,602 kb/d (42%), while Turkey was the top importer of oil products with 424 kb/d.
As of October 31, 2025, the EU, US, UK, Canada, and New Zealand had sanctioned 610 oil tankers involved in transporting Russian oil. The number of sanctioned vessels that loaded in Russian ports increased by nine MoM to 109, once again highlighting weak enforcement of sanctions.
In September, all Russian crude grades traded above the EU’s revised price cap, while most oil products — except naphtha — traded below the unchanged product caps. Urals FOB Primorsk and Novorossiysk averaged $55/bbl (around $8 above the cap), while ESPO FOB Kozmino was priced at $62.8/bbl.
According to KSE Institute projections, under current price caps and the status quo of sanctions, Russia’s oil revenues are expected to reach $158 billion in 2025 and $131 billion in 2026 (compared to $189 billion in 2024 and $185 billion in 2023).
If Urals and ESPO discounts widen to $30/bbl and $20/bbl, revenues could drop to $149 billion and $67 billion. In a weak enforcement scenario, revenues could instead rise to $162 billion and $146 billion, respectively.
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