In the second half of October, Russian propaganda is planning to intensify a disinformation campaign claiming Ukraine is allegedly “unprepared for winter” and “unable to resist Russia.”
The Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council said this in a statement seen by Ukrinform.
“As the heating season draws closer, the Center predicts an escalation of the Russian propaganda campaign, conditionally titled ‘unprepared for winter.’ Amid strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Kremlin media will seek to fuel panic over a supposedly catastrophic situation in the energy and heating sectors. Propagandists will circulate dramatic forecasts about an ‘energy collapse,’ ‘freezing cities,’ a ‘humanitarian disaster,’ and a ‘mass exodus of the population,’ as well as narratives about Ukraine’s ‘inability to respond to attacks on its energy system’,” the report said.
It added that special emphasis would be placed on discrediting the Ukrainian government through accusations of “incompetence,” “corruption in the energy sector,” and “failure to protect citizens.” Any technical issues or local disruptions will be presented as “proof of the state’s systemic failure.”
At the same time, Russian outlets will attempt to create the impression that “the only solution” for Ukraine is a surrender and ending resistance to “save people from a cold winter.”
According to the CCD, other narratives expected in the Kremlin’s October information campaign include discrediting the EU’s 20th package of sanctions; manipulating the situation around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and promoting claims of “Ukrainian nuclear terrorism,” intensifying “anti-war” rhetoric in European countries, and undermining transatlantic defense cooperation. In addition, Russia is expected to push disinformation targeting the EU’s decision to shoot down Russian aircraft and drones in European airspace, as well as hybrid influence operations ahead of the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands.
Earlier in October, the Center for Countering Disinformation recorded an intensification of Russian propaganda aimed at discrediting the Ukrainian Armed Forces.