As Ukraine anxiously awaits the approaching U.S. presidential election, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov explained in a wide-ranging interview how his country plans to “hold the line” and pressure Russia to negotiate a just peace settlement.
Ukraine probably has more at stake in this election than any foreign country, given former president Donald Trump’s open disdain for Ukraine’s cause and his claims that he would make a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin as soon as he was elected. Trump’s talk may be political rhetoric, but Ukraine knows that its window of U.S. support could close in several months.
Umerov offered a detailed explanation of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan,” which the Ukrainian leader announced in Europe last week. As I listened, it sounded to me like a strategy for forcing negotiations with Putin rather than a military plan for retaking all of Russian-occupied territory. That would be a pragmatic step for Ukraine.
The key element of the victory plan, Umerov explained, is Ukraine’s request for a quick invitation to join NATO once the war ends. The Biden administration is weighing this option but worries it might give Russia an incentive to prolong fighting rather than stop it. A second item is defense, which Umerov defined as “hold the line and create favorable conditions to expel the enemy.” A third part is “deterrence,” which involves deep strikes on military targets in Russia to prevent it from attacking civilians and critical infrastructure in Ukraine.
Umerov is one of the most intriguing characters in Zelensky’s team. He is a Crimean Tatar who had a very successful business career and maintains close ties with fellow Muslims in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Those contacts have helped him operate as an intermediary with Russia, the Middle East and the United States, and they are one reason that Zelensky turned to him, first as head of Ukraine’s public investment fund and then, a year ago, as defense minister.
Umerov is a controversial figure in Ukraine, partly because he has backed drafting more young people for the war, and the Kyiv rumor mill is buzzing with talk that he may be removed. “Umerov is under some political pressure,” noted William Taylor, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and a frequent visitor there. But he cautioned: “While personnel decisions are not for foreigners, Ukraine needs unity and stability in top military leadership now.”
Biden administration officials believe that Umerov has brought “rigor and sophistication” to defense planning in a sometimes-chaotic bureaucracy, one senior official told me. But the dominant figures in the kaleidoscopic feudal court of Kyiv remain Zelensky and his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.
When it comes to negotiating with Russians, Umerov has been one of Ukraine’s most effective representatives. He conducted back-channel negotiations in the first months of the war with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, a close contact of Putin’s. Their talks in Istanbul collapsed in March 2022, amid reports that the two might have been poisoned. But the channel stayed open through the rest of that year and achieved some quiet breakthroughs.
Umerov told me that in the secret 2022 talks, there were several negotiating tracks through international partners. These efforts resulted in a “humanitarian corridor” that allowed 400,000 people to escape Russian-occupied territory, exchanges of prisoners of war, political prisoners and wounded soldiers, and a grain-export deal that allowed Ukraine to resume shipments through the Black Sea. The United States “was always aware” of these contacts, he said, “because we were always consulting on every track.”
U.S. officials confirmed that the secret talks took place in 2022, when Russia was publicly threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons. When I asked Umerov whether any such back-channel talks were happening now, he answered that “the humanitarian track is still open.”
Umerov has tried to tackle two of Ukraine’s military weaknesses: corruption in procurement and a manpower shortage. These steps have made him some enemies.
One especially controversial move was a new mobilization law that lowers the draft age from 27 to 25 and registers Ukrainians for service. Ukrainian generals had urged this move to combat Russia’s manpower advantage. But Umerov told me that when he first urged the mobilization law, some members of parliament told him that it was politically “toxic.” “It’s better to drink the water from Chernobyl, rather than touch this topic,” he said he was warned.
But the mobilization plan is now law, and Umerov said that 5 million Ukrainians have registered. Rather than automatically forcing recruits to the front line, they have been offered choices of how they want to serve, he explained.
Corruption has been a continuing problem in military procurement. Umerov told me that some Western partners had complained about dealing with a purchasing company called Special Techno Export, or STE, which was overseen by the military intelligence service, known as the GUR, headed by Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov.
STE was “infamous for getting into money-laundering scandals,” according to an article this month. Umerov told me that he launched an audit of STE and eventually put it under the ministry’s direct control. Umerov said he had advised Budanov to focus “on intelligence rather than acquisition.” There are widespread rumors in Kyiv that Budanov, too, may soon be replaced. But Umerov said Budanov, a charismatic general with a big popular following, “will remain in his position.”
To reform the procurement system, Umerov this month fired three of his deputies. He said in announcing the move: “I set out to complete the process of cleaning up the acquisition system in close collaboration with law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies.”
Ukraine has bolstered its military leverage by using drones and electronic warfare to penetrate deep inside Russian territory. Umerov told me he has established a “Deep Strike Task Force” to coordinate the sometimes-fractious elements of the defense ministry. One adviser to Zelensky described Umerov’s effort as “a Rand Corp.-like center of cooperation.” This push for consolidation has brought some criticism from people who argue that Umerov lacks military command experience. But he still seems to have Zelensky’s backing.
As the U.S. election approaches, the most urgent part of Zelensky’s victory plan may be the request for a quick invitation to join NATO. The Biden administration is weighing historical precedents that might allow NATO membership even if Russia still controls some Ukrainian territory. One example is West Germany’s NATO membership, even while East Germany was occupied by Russian troops. Another is Norway, which agreed when it joined NATO in 1949 that it wouldn’t allow foreign bases or troops on its territory or nuclear weapons in its ports.
Umerov said such details are issues for later. “We want the invitation first.”
For a Biden administration thinking about its legacy, locking down a strategy to protect Ukraine now and build a platform for future negotiations should be a priority. “Look, guys, we showed you that we’re capable of doing it,” Umerov told me. “But we need the assistance now.”
Source: The Washington Post
