The future of the war in Ukraine may soon take a different direction as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office early next year with a vastly different approach to the conflict than the outgoing Biden administration.
Trump has been skeptical of continuing to provide further aid to Ukraine as the war has slogged on and has said that he would end the conflict in a day, though he has not detailed how he planned to achieve that goal. It is in stark contrast to the Biden administration that has backed Ukraine since Russia invaded and sent billions in military and financial aid while rallying other allies around the world to do the same.
Ukraine has been trying to fend off Russian advances for months as its infrastructure and other crucial lifelines have been pummeled by missiles and drone strikes. Thousands of North Korean troops have also been spotted assisting Moscow and trying to drive Ukraine’s forces out of its Kursk region along the border.
Trump has already spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who he warned against further escalating the conflict and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian president was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump, and said the two had discussed how to end “Russian aggression against Ukraine” in September.
But there is uncertainty over how the incoming Trump administration might handle the ongoing conflict. Analysts are expecting Trump to ramp up pressure on both sides to come to a truce agreement, which may require Ukraine to cede territory and seek security guarantees before agreeing to a stop in the fighting.
Ukrainian officials have repeatedly spoken out against ceding any territory and said they would not recognize Russian control over the areas it has occupied during the war.
“Everyone understands that no matter what path we take, legally no one will recognize the occupied territories as belonging to other countries,” Zelenskyy said last month.
There are also questions as to whether Putin and the Kremlin would honor any kind of security guarantees.
“Putin is not going to stop until he is deterred from stopping, and the only way to deter him is to have NATO security guarantees,” said Ian Kelly, ambassador in residence at Northwestern University and a former State Department diplomat.
Ukraine has sought to become a member of NATO, which would come with the backing of all members in the event of an invasion, an issue that has been a nonstarter with Putin, who has insisted for years that Ukraine being added to the NATO alliance is unacceptable and would void any talks of a truce in the war.
Trump has also nominated two lawmakers who have recently voted against further military aid to Ukraine and advocated for finding an end to the war. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, nominated to be secretary of state, and Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida, tapped as Trump’s national security adviser, have backed Ukraine and the United Nations in the past but have also adapted their positions as the election neared.
Waltz has also called on Ukraine’s European neighbors stepping up the level of aid they are providing to match what the United States has spent. In an op-ed in The Economist this month, Waltz said that a Trump administration should ramp up economic pressure on Russia to force Putin to negotiate and could increase weapon supplies to Ukraine if he refuses.
If Congress and Trump were to continue the trend of opposing further spending and aid to Ukraine, that would put more pressure on Europe and other NATO allies to fill the void.
But there are questions as to whether the U.S.’ European counterparts will have the political will or industrial capacity to ramp up what they are providing to help Ukraine fend off Russia despite the proximity of the war and concerns Putin could eventually invade a NATO country that it shares a border with.
“It would be difficult for them to come up with tens of billions of dollars, not only because it’s a lot of money they’d have to take from other places in their budget, but they don’t have the industrial capacity to do it,” Kelly said.
The Biden administration has taken steps to rush as much aid as it can out the door to Ukraine before it leaves office. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that the administration is trying to give Ukraine a position of strength to negotiate from in the next year.
“President Biden has committed to making sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door between now and Jan. 20,” the day Trump takes office, Blinken said.
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