February 11, 2025

1083th day of Russian invasion

Seoul weighing ‘various’ responses to North Korea sending troops to Ukraine

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South Korea is considering “various” ways to respond to North Korea’s deployment of troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, Seoul’s defense ministry said Monday, while declining to state whether the ROK will provide direct military aid to Kyiv.

The statement comes after South Korea’s presidential office confirmed the DPRK deployment last week, with Seoul’s spy agency releasing satellite imagery that it said showed Russian naval vessels transporting North Korean special forces to the Russian Far East.

“The government is keeping a close eye on the situation, staying open to various possibilities,” defense ministry spokesperson Jeon Ha-kyu said on Monday, when asked about how South Korea will respond. “Necessary follow-up measures will be reviewed and implemented.”

Jeon repeatedly maintained that he could not disclose details of these potential measures, while declining to comment directly on whether South Korea will retaliate by sending lethal weapons to Ukraine. Seoul has sold arms to Poland and the U.S. in recent years but has only provided non-lethal aid to Kyiv since Russia launched its invasion.

Later in the afternoon, Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun summoned Russian Ambassador Georgiy Zinoviev to “strongly urge the immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops and cessation of related cooperation,” the ROK foreign ministry said in a release.

Kim emphasized that the deployment poses a “significant security threat not only to South Korea but also to the international community,” condemning the “illegal military cooperation in the strongest terms.” He warned Zinoviev that “all available means will be mobilized” to actions that threaten Seoul’s “core security interests.” 

Shortly after, the Russian Embassy said in a statement that the ambassador told Kim that Moscow’s cooperation with Pyongyang falls within the framework of international law and does not violate Seoul’s security interests.

RED LINE CROSSED?

Earlier this year, Seoul’s national security adviser floated the possibility of providing lethal weapons to Ukraine shortly after North Korea signed a new mutual defense treaty with Russia, warning of a “red line” Pyongyang and Moscow must not cross.

But the defense ministry avoided stating on Monday whether the DPRK’s apparent deployment of troops breached Seoul’s threshold.

“It’s difficult to assess whether the red line has been crossed or not. Our basic stance is that North Korea’s participation in Russia’s war of aggression violates U.N. resolutions,” Jeon said, adding it threatens ROK national security and “citizen safety.”

Ban Kil-joo, a professor at the Ilmin International Relations Institute at Korea University, told NK News that Seoul faces a tricky situation in responding to DPRK troop deployments since Russia could retaliate by aiding North Korea.

“Seoul needs a mechanism to increase leverage over Russia again — and that’s done through red line management. That’s why it needs to be carefully crafted.”

He argued that Seoul should now declare the deployment a breach of its red line and back up its past warnings.

“To accurately convey that Russia has crossed the red line, simply increasing the financial and humanitarian support we’re currently providing for Ukraine won’t be considered punishment,” he said.

“Ultimately Seoul will have to consider the lethal weapons card that Russia fears, but even with lethal weapons support, the level of warning can vary depending on the degree.”

The expert explained that South Korea’s options range from simply increasing its supply of shells to Ukraine’s allies, thus allowing them to provide more arms to Kyiv, to stronger measures like sending different types of ground-to-ground missiles directly to Ukraine.

Seoul will need to strategize what kind to provide at which time, he said, suggesting that higher-level officials are likely still formulating this “important” strategy.

THE SILENCE

North Korean state media has yet to confirm the deployment of its soldiers to Ukraine, but the ROK military reportedly included the news in one of its propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts on Monday.

During Monday’s briefing, journalists asked the defense ministry why the U.S. or NATO have not officially confirmed what the ROK National Intelligence Service (NIS) or the presidential office announced last week.

“As far as I know, before the NIS and the presidential office disclosed the information on Oct. 18, they shared and coordinated these facts with the U.S.,” spokesperson Jeon said.

But Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told NK News that the U.S. is likely not yet officially confirming the North Korean deployment because it is too early to tell the unit involved and scale.

“The situation is not yet definitive,” the expert said, explaining that it is difficult to know the nature of the deployment despite the NIS and presidential office’s claims.

He said South Korea will likely need to wait until there are confirmed North Korean casualties or prisoners in Ukraine to justify the provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine.

However, Cho expressed doubt that North Korea will send a significant number of special ops troops at a time of intense escalation with South Korea, especially when those troops will serve in a “war of attrition” with many expected casualties. 

Meanwhile, the South Korean outlet Newspim reported that ROK military authorities are planning to dispatch “military agents” to Ukraine in light of the DPRK deployment. 

“We don’t have any specific details to confirm regarding that matter. Our overall position is that we will review necessary aspects while keeping possibilities open,” Jeon said, when asked about the report at the briefing.

Source: NKNews

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