While at first glance the seizing of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro resembles the application of the Monroe Doctrine, it is actually the first use of what US President Donald Trump, with his usual modesty, describes as the Donroe Doctrine.
“The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we’ve superseded it by a lot, by a real lot. They now call it the Donroe document,” Trump said, attaching the first letter of his name to the series of principles.
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The Monroe version (1823) basically claimed that any interference by a European country in the Americas could be met by US military force. The Americas were a no-go zone for European powers.
This meant that the US was the pre-eminent political, military and economic power in the western hemisphere. The Donroe version maintains that status but has a significant add-on.
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In essence, this new doctrine gives Washington a free hand in its sphere of influence. But, crucially, China and Russia are also allowed, by extension, a great deal of latitude in what they view as their spheres of influence.
This is a vision of hemispheric dominance backed by military power, but with the US actually curtailing its global presence. Make no mistake, we are witnessing a rupture from Europe that is profound and deep. The US, for the first time since 1945, is not a global power not through force of arms but because it chose to.
This is ominous, for obvious reasons, for both Taiwan and Ukraine.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be losing too much sleep over Maduro’s fate. Indeed, the actions by the US encourage Putin, a close ally of the former Venezuelan leader, to continue his war against Ukraine. The head of a nuclear-armed Russia will not have to check his security detail before hitting the sack for fear of being apprehended. Nor is Moscow unduly worried by the loss of an ally, as it has gained something far more valuable. Its sphere of influence has been accepted.
The US, by its actions in Caracas, has granted Russian influence over former Soviet republics in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Ukraine.
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China’s president faces a slightly different set of circumstances. Trump can hardly point an accusatory finger at Xi Jinping in the event that he attacks Taiwan. But there is another viewpoint in the closed, heavily fortified leadership compound in Beijing. Trump just might feel emboldened enough to send in the troops to protect Taiwan, something he would never do for Ukraine. It’s an unlikely scenario, but one that nonetheless needs to be considered.
It is also worth noting that US control of Venezuelan oilfields denies China a guaranteed energy supplier.
China is an addicted customer of Venezuelan oil. But the new world could also play into Beijing’s hand. If Beijing is considered the more moderate on global policy and the more reliable in terms of its actions, using coercion instead of force, then it could reap the benefit.
Greenland is being mentioned as the next victim of Trumpian swagger. What this means is deeply concerning. A US president unwilling to commit troops to defend Ukraine will instead commit troops to invade an autonomous territory within the kingdom of Denmark. The temptation seems too great for Trump to resist. Greenland’s strategic location and mineral wealth give it all the characteristics of a tethered lamb with a salivating wolf pack inching closer.
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An invasion of Greenland would sow confusion, foster a sense of betrayal, and end NATO as a credible force.
In that scenario, the temptation for Russia and China to deploy their armed forces to grab more land would be immense.
Europe is isolated and must decide whether to accept or oppose Washington’s new policies. Giving the thumbs up might appear on the surface to preserve a carry-on-as-normal appearance, but it would only reward bullying.
To oppose Washington would be politically costly, and it may not even be possible to put up a united front. Some European leaders privately applaud Trump’s new approach.
Is Europe willing to defend its legitimate concerns when the challenge comes from its most powerful ally?
Can it take on Moscow and Washington at the same time?
More to the point, what does this mean for Ukraine?
The omens are not good for Kyiv regarding any peace deal Trump might seek to impose on Ukraine. A distracted US involved with a military intervention in Latin America will inevitably see resources taken from Europe.
This weaker US presence can only embolden Moscow.
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This is the European reality. It inhabits a strategic environment in which the US is unreliable and possibly even threatening.
An erratic ally is not an ally, no more than a drunk friend is reliable in a street fight.
The new year has given Putin and Xi a US president mired in problems in the Western hemisphere. The Russian and Chinese leaders, with the potential end of NATO, will heartily welcome the Donroe Doctrine.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.