ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Map and Update, January 13, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian strikes caused significantly more civilian casualties in Ukraine in 2025 compared to previous years.
• Russia dramatically increased the size, scale, and destructiveness of its strike packages throughout 2025, which likely contributed to the increase in civilian casualties.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 12 to 13 that significantly damaged energy infrastructure throughout Ukraine and hit a postal terminal in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Russia continues to scale up the production and innovation of inexpensive strike drones that have succeeded in generating favorable battlefield effects for Russian forces.
• Russian forces are struggling with other technological aspects of the battlespace, however, including with the effectiveness of some guided artillery munitions.
• Western sanctions on aircraft components will likely continue to constrain Russia’s ability to produce military aircraft.
• Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense industrial and energy assets.
• Unidentified drones struck multiple oil tankers off the Russian coast in the Black Sea.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly dismissed Russian Navy Deputy Commander for Coastal and Ground Forces Lieutenant General Sukhrab Akhmedov.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

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